Which Guy should the 49ers Re-sign?

In my last article, I discussed some of the issues that the front office faces this offseason in keeping players who were key figures in helping the 49ers reach the Super Bowl.  In this one, I will be putting on my fake GM cap and looking at who should be paid to stay with the 49ers or be allowed to test free agency out of the free agents.  In order to keep it simple, I will only talk about the players who are unrestricted free agents or could be one if the 49ers decline their club option.  First, I will break down what each player has done for the team, then follow it up with a verdict and why I reached the decision for that player.  Some may agree with my conclusions, while others may tell me to check my living area for fumes or be thanking the heavens that I am not an actual GM for the team.  Whatever you think is fine by me, especially since I am doing this just for fun, have already checked for any gas leaks, and am thanking the heavens that I am not an actual GM.

DE/DL Arik Armstead

            In 2019, Armstead finally experienced the breakout season that the 49ers fans have been waiting for to happen for so long.  And break out he did.  After reaching a career-high of three sacks during the 2018 season, Armstead obliterated that number by taking down QBs 10 times during the regular season. Armstead was held without a sack during the last five regular-season games, but he has added two more sacks to his season total during the playoffs.  Armstead also succeeded in defending against two passes and forcing two fumbles, as well as recovering a fumble.  His stats also included career highs in QB hits (18) and TFLs (11).  

VERDICT:  Let him test free agency

            While re-upping with Armstead would be a great outcome for the 49ers, the reality is that it will be next to impossible for this to happen.  After all, Armstead is only 26 years old and has been able to play in all 16 regular-season games for two straight seasons.  More importantly, Armstead is coming off a career year, so his stock is currently at an all-time high.  All of this adds up to the 49ers being unable to keep Armstead because he will cost too much.  Can the 49ers apply the franchise tag to him?  Sure, for a projected $19.3 million if he designated as a DE.  Like I said, too much.

FS Jimmie Ward

            Aside from finishing third-best on the team in total tackles and defending 8 passes, there is not much to glean from the stats Ward put up in 2019 to how valuable he was to the 49ers.  But any 49ers fan knows that the secondary really improved once Ward returned as a starter after sitting out the first few games of the season due to an injury.  For one, there were considerably less bad angles taken by the FS on passes thrown.  And when he was paired with Tartt, it felt like no RB could score on the unit.  Over and over again, Ward made or helped make several stops, from the TD saving tackle on RB Nick Chubb against the Browns in front of a Monday Night Football audience to halting the Rams twice on fourth down when the 49ers played against them in October.  

VERDICT:  Let him test free agency, but try to re-sign him.

            If teams only look at the stats Ward put up, then he will be easier for the 49ers to resign.  However, teams in need of a FS will probably be watching how Ward does in the Super Bowl; if he helps the 49ers stop the high-octane Chiefs offense, then that will likely increase Ward’s already high value he gained during the regular season and playoffs and make him less likely to return to the 49ers.  Adding to the conundrum is the weakness of the FS position in free agency and the draft.   The 49ers could apply the franchise tag to him, but does the team, whose coaching staff has raved about Ward and his work ethic in the past, want to pay over $8-10 million for a player who has been injury-prone?  If the 49ers are fine with taking the risk, then the team should try to resign Ward because his presence in the secondary really benefitted the defense.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

            Acquired via a trade with the Broncos in October, the presence of Sanders made the passing game of the 49ers a more dangerous component of the offense that could not be taken lightly by any NFL defense.  Sanders showed that he can burn a team if they do not do a good job covering him, which is something the Cardinals and Saints found out.  But when teams did successfully cover him, it opened up things for Bourne and Samuel as pass catchers, with the former snagging five TD passes and the latter having a more solid rookie season after Sanders arrived through the Broncos trade.  Don’t believe me?  Check out the stats for Bourne and Samuel at http://www.nfl.com/player/kendrickbourne/2558914/gamelogs and http://www.nfl.com/player/deebosamuel/2562721/gamelogs.  

VERDICT:  Re-sign him.

            This is honestly a no-brainer.  Not only has Sanders added something to the passing game, but he has also shown that he is a great blocker and (unlike Dante Pettis) is not afraid of fighting for the ball.  Sanders will be 33 years old by the start of the 2020 regular season and has also stated that he wants to play for at least two more years, so the 49ers should be able to resign the playmaker to a deal that will not be a big hit to the salary cap.  Having Sanders aboard will also give the 49ers a solid #2 WR in their offense once Samuel become the top WR.

DE/DL Ronald Blair

            Utilized primarily as a backup and pass-specialist in 2019, Blair was on pace to break his career-high in sacks, tackles, and TFLs.  Unfortunately, Blair suffered an injury that put an end to his 2019 campaign.  When Blair was on the field however, he always seemed to be able to make his presence be known.

VERDICT:  Re-sign him before someone else does.

            Don’t let the short description of his 2019 season fool you.  Blair was a difference-maker whenever he was on the field, so the 49ers should do their best to resign him given the injury history of DE Dee Ford and the lack of quality depth at DE behind Ford and Nick Bosa.  The 49ers may be able to sign Blair to a low-cost deal given that he is coming back from an injury, but he is a player that seems to be ready to be given a starting role on a defense, and a team could swoop in and sign Blair to a deal that may be too rich for the 49ers if they are not careful.

FB Kyle Juszczyk

            I am only including Juice because he could be a free agent if the team declines his club option, but the likelihood of that happening is as strong as the Bengals winning the Super Bowl this Sunday.  No team is going to get rid of a player that brings so much to an offense, even if they are playing a position that teams are eliminating from their rosters.

VERDICT:  Who would seriously reach this point?

*TFL is short for tackle for loss.

Check out these links and tell me if you agree or disagree with my conclusions.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/ArmsAr01.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WardJi01.htm

http://www.nfl.com/player/emmanuelsanders/497322/gamelogs

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BlaiRo00.htm

Free Agency: Looking at the 2020 49ers Salary Cap Situation

Well, the 49ers have done it.  They defeated the Green Bay Packers (okay they pulverized them) on Sunday to earn their seventh trip to the Super Bowl to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the quest for the elusive sixth title.  While I do plan to talk about the game,  I want to first discuss the salary cap space along with the impending free agents that the 49ers will have after the conclusion of the Super Bowl and if they should or should not keep them.  To save time on the latter, I will only be looking the players I saw as key pieces to the success the 49ers had this season.  In order to do this, I need to first talk about the salary cap space and the dilemmas surrounding it in this article and follow up with an article on the impending unrestricted free agents.

Let’s set up the salary cap scene now, shall we?

According to spotrac.com, the 49ers are currently expected to have a little over $16 million in salary cap space for the 2020-2021 season.  Some fans will point out that cutting RB Jerick McKinnon, WR Marquise Goodwin, and RB Telvin Coleman will add approximately an additional $18.4 million to the salary cap. Or at the very least, the 49ers could ask any of the three aforementioned players to take a pay cut in order to remain with the team. So problem solved, right?

Not so fast.

One issue with that thinking is there is no guarantee that the 49ers do cut any one of those players or even ask them to take a pay cut.  Is either scenario possible?  Yes, but how many of us expected the team to trade or cut Armstead or Ward before the 2018 and 2019 seasons?  How well would that have worked out?  Gone would have been the breakout season from Armstead and the improvement of the secondary when Ward assumed the started FS role, two key components which helped the 49ers become the last NFC team standing. 

But let’s say the 49ers do cut McKinnon, Goodwin, and Coleman.  Well…

Another problem is the 49ers need to get contract extensions done with DT/DE DeForest Buckner and TE George Kittle.  Why is this a problem?  The stats Buckner has produced during his career so far fall right around the stats of the two highest paid 4-3 DTs in the league in Fletcher Cox and Grady Jarrett.  One could argue Buckner’s stats fall closer to Jarrett’s, but it is a fair moot argument since Cox and Jarrett are both averaging at $17 million a year, with just $100,000 more being paid to Cox.  Meanwhile, Kittle has firmly established his self as one of the best, if not the best) TEs in the game today, so he should be paid like one.  Therefore, expect Kittle’s annual salary to be north of $10 million since Jimmy Graham currently has the highest average at $10 million per year. 

See how quickly that additional $18.4 million disappears?  And this does not even touch on the ERFAs (exclusive rights free agents), RFAs (restricted free agents), and the incoming rookies from the 2020 draft class which the team will need to address.   

Simply put, the 49ers will face some tough decisions on what UFAs they will be able to keep, and I will make a prediction on the ones I see as the important pieces to the team’s success this season in my next article.  Please look forward to it!

SOURCES

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/7/13/20692788/salary-cap-nuggets-no-11-free-agency-erfa-rfa-ufa

http://www.nfl.com

https://www.overthecap.com

https://www.spotrac.com

Five Things, Plus an Ace in the Hole and a Wildcard

            On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers will face the Green Bay Packers to determine who will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.  While the 49ers demolished Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Levi Stadium during the regular season, both teams are expecting a more well fought game this time around.  Here are the five things I think the 49ers will need to do in order to come out of the game with a win, what or who the ace in the hole will be, and what will be the wildcard for the game.

1.         Establish their will in the run game.

The 49ers won the game against the Vikings in the second round of the playoffs largely because RB Coleman ran through the Vikings defense like it was made of butter.  This type of game plan could come in handy against a Packers defense which finished the regular season allowing a little over 120 yards on the ground.  If the 49ers can pound the ball on the ground at a decent clip, it will open up the passing game and force the Packers choose what to defend.  Of course, none of this will matter if the 49ers fail to…

2.         Eliminate the turnovers.

QB Garoppolo.  WR Bourne.  WR Samuel.  RB Bredia.  What is the one thing each player has in common within this group?  If you answered they have caused some ugly turnovers or fumbles during the season and playoffs, then give yourself a pat on the back or whatever reward you see fit.  Each player has dealt with losing the ball at one point or another, and that could be an issue against an opponent who finished with a +12-turnover ratio.  In order for the 49ers to win the game, Garoppolo must avoid the bad interception, Staley and the rest of the offensive linesmen must keep Garoppolo on his feet, and the pass catchers and runners have to hold onto the ball like it was a precious gem.  Otherwise, it may be a long and tiring day for the defense.

3.         Stop the pass rush.

            One of the main reasons the 49ers laid a whooping upon the Packers in the regular season is because they managed to make the pass rush of the Packers ineffective.  (Well, except during the first half where LT Skule was being schooled, but I digress.)  That is because Shanahan replaced Skule at LT with Brunskill, thus allowing Garoppolo more time in the passing game and to finish with a 253 yards/2 TDs stat line.  Still, the Packers finished the game with three sacks under their belt, so they may believe they repeat their previous performance or even do better than it.  It is up to the guys protecting Garoppolo to make sure that does not happen.

4.         Keep Rodgers uncomfortable.

When the 49ers last met the Packers, the defensive line made the night one for Rodgers to forget.  And who could blame him?  After all, he was under continuous pressure all night which resulted in him getting sacked five times and fumbling the football.  As a result, Rodgers finished the night game passing for barely over 100 yards and the worst statistical night of his career.  And this was with the 49ers dealing with injuries to key playmakers on the defense that night.    I can guarantee that a healthy line of starters on the 49ers defense are licking their chops at the prospect of making Rodgers uncomfortable again in the game on Sunday.  If the unit succeeds in doing so, the 49ers will win the game.

5.         Play smart.

            This applies to everyone on the coaching staff and on the field.  Shanahan cannot afford to get too cute with the play-calling, Saleh needs to adjust quickly when the opponent throws him a new wrinkle, Garoppolo must avoid the bad throws, and dumb penalties should be occurring as often as the Buffalo Bills have won a Super Bowl title.

Ace in the Hole:  Keep an eye on WR Richie James in this game.  The 49ers have not utilized him very much on offense this season because he is a below average run blocker, but he has shown the ability to be a difference maker in the passing game when given the chance. 

Wildcard:  Some would say the wildcard for the game is how well Moseley plays opposite Sherman, and others may say the effectiveness of Ford.  Still, others might point to Garoppolo or Bredia as the wildcard.  But I am going to go with SS Tartt as the wildcard for Sunday’s game.  Why?  When he has been healthy and starting for the 49ers, the defense has performed better against the pass, but more importantly against the run.  On a defense that can be susceptible to the run going up against an offense which averaged 112.2 yards per game during the regular season, his importance cannot be ignored. 

Prediction:  49ers 32

                    Packers 21

*Stats from nfl.com and espn.com

-MidWestDynasty